BTC Futures Basis API

Bitcoin futures basis (annualized premium/discount) — signals trader expectations and derivatives market structure.

Webhook URL

https://api.hunchmachine.com/webhook/indicators?indicator=btc_futures_basis&api_key=YOUR_API_KEY

Description

Measures the annualized futures basis — the percentage difference between Bitcoin's futures price and the spot price, normalized by time to expiration. This indicator reflects trader expectations and market structure in derivatives: a positive basis suggests bullish sentiment (futures trading above spot), while a negative basis indicates bearish pressure or market stress.

What this endpoint provides

A real-time view of the BTC futures premium or discount, expressed as an annualized rate, alongside time to expiry and qualitative interpretation fields.

Response fields

value

Annualized futures basis in percentage (%).

spot

Current BTC spot price.

future

Current BTC futures price for the nearest contract analyzed.

days_to_exp

Number of days until contract expiration.

trend

General directional bias of the basis (up, down, or neutral).

momentum_state

Describes the strength or stability of recent changes (accelerating, weakening, stable).

regime

Interpreted market condition based on basis level (risk-on, risk-off).

interpretation

Text summary describing what the current basis level implies.

summary

Compact human-readable description combining all relevant values.

timestamp

UTC timestamp of the most recent update.

Output example

[
  {
    "indicator": "btc_futures_basis",
    "timestamp": "2025-11-01T02:56:01.659Z",
    "value": 5.79,
    "spot": 109812.3,
    "future": 112355.5,
    "days_to_exp": 145.88,
    "trend": "neutral",
    "momentum_state": "stable",
    "regime": "risk-on",
    "interpretation": "Light positive basis — healthy bullish structure.",
    "summary": "BTC Futures Basis: 5.79% annualized (145.88d to expiry) — Light positive basis — healthy bullish structure."
  }
]

Interpretation & Use

The futures basis is one of the clearest signals of trader sentiment in derivatives markets: • **Positive basis (contango)** → futures above spot, typical of healthy bull markets and risk-on regimes. • **Negative basis (backwardation)** → futures below spot, often linked to risk-off conditions or fear-driven selloffs. • **A shrinking basis** may precede cooling momentum or shifts in sentiment. Automations can use value and regime to track market structure transitions (e.g., “basis turning negative → defensive mode”), while LLMs can use the interpretation or summary for reasoning about leverage dynamics and market confidence.